"by keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and attacking energy infrastructure in the Gulf" - They'll keep the Strait closed but attacking energy infrastructure - at least in a large scale way will mean the destruction of their own energy infrastructure. And while that may convince the US to turn tail, it also may end up creating existential threats to the regime internally so I don't think they do this except as a last resort.
Isn't it fair to say that we know the war will end at the latest once Democrats control Congress, which they are highly likely to do, especially if the war is still going in November? Obviously January 2027 is a long time from now, but there is a time at which we can be reasonably certain the war will be over. This makes the situation quite different from (say) Russia vs Ukraine.
Unfortunately I wouldn’t be too confident at all. There are probably a significant number of Democrats who would not be willing to vote “against US troops” and even if Congress passed a resolution against the war, it’s not totally clear that Trump/the administration would accept this as binding I fear…
Fair points but I think it was strategically smart to attack them now because they were relatively weak and posed no direct threat which is why they kept stalling diplomatically while they kept reconstituting their weapons program. I hope the trump team don't chicken out now because of the midterms. They are gonna lose the midterms anyways regardless of the outcome of this war. Should've thought of that before tariffs, appointing Stephen Miller, Kristi Noem, Brendan Carr, RFK Jr., DOGE et al. into the administration, etc. Don't solely blame the Iran war on why they'll lose the midterms. If the US chickens out now, they will have used 20? billions and depleting all the stockpile from the pacific for what? just to mow the grass? That would suck balls.
You said it yourself: Iran is a weak country that posed no direct threat to the US. So, why attack it? They kept reconstituting their weapons program? Ok, but nothing they were doing threatened the US. The President yielded to the temptation of believing his little war would be quick and easy - just like Venezuela, just like the 12-day bombing campaign. But - no surprise to anybody paying attention - Iran immediately closed the strait. It was never worth risking this.
I agree it is bad that we have already wasted the weapons stockpile and spent tens of billions, and we've lost American lives. This, apparently, was for for little to no gain - "mowing the lawn" - which leaves a very bitter taste. But if we double down, there's a very good chance we will waste even more weapons, more money, and more lives without getting much in return - while inflicting very serious damage to the world economy and our alliances.
17,000 US soldiers aren't going to conquer a country of 95 million. It's not clear how much pressure the US can bring to bear, or how easily, and how willing Iran is to carry out its threats to damage other persian gulf oil production. There are many ways for this to end with very serious harm and a sullen, defiant Iranian government still in charge of its territory.
Because they will be much tougher to deal with when they are not weak. After they got exposed last year, they were even more hellbent in getting nukes (which who wouldn’t?!). So if the goal is to prevent them from getting nukes, imo it’s better to deal with them when they are weak. No one is asking for a full scale invasion and conquering. Just severely degrade their military capabilities and internal repression infrastructure (so they can’t gun down their own people) and keep up the economic pressure. Maybe it’ll work out idk 🤷
If we listen to the hawks, Iran has been “two weeks away from getting a nuclear weapon” for years and years.
It’s easy to dream of smashing their capability and ending the threat. And it’s tiring to think about negotiations and monitoring. But actually starting a war carries costs and uncertainties and even after all that it may not resolve anything. A lot of people say the sanctions program and monitoring was working. I find it hard to trust Donald Trump’s dismissal more.
Well they are not wrong in the sense that they already have the stockpile, even the IAEA agrees. And Russia and China can always step up as far as the infrastructure goes. All the more reasons to say the regime’s gotta go!
"by keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and attacking energy infrastructure in the Gulf" - They'll keep the Strait closed but attacking energy infrastructure - at least in a large scale way will mean the destruction of their own energy infrastructure. And while that may convince the US to turn tail, it also may end up creating existential threats to the regime internally so I don't think they do this except as a last resort.
Isn't it fair to say that we know the war will end at the latest once Democrats control Congress, which they are highly likely to do, especially if the war is still going in November? Obviously January 2027 is a long time from now, but there is a time at which we can be reasonably certain the war will be over. This makes the situation quite different from (say) Russia vs Ukraine.
Unfortunately I wouldn’t be too confident at all. There are probably a significant number of Democrats who would not be willing to vote “against US troops” and even if Congress passed a resolution against the war, it’s not totally clear that Trump/the administration would accept this as binding I fear…
Fair points but I think it was strategically smart to attack them now because they were relatively weak and posed no direct threat which is why they kept stalling diplomatically while they kept reconstituting their weapons program. I hope the trump team don't chicken out now because of the midterms. They are gonna lose the midterms anyways regardless of the outcome of this war. Should've thought of that before tariffs, appointing Stephen Miller, Kristi Noem, Brendan Carr, RFK Jr., DOGE et al. into the administration, etc. Don't solely blame the Iran war on why they'll lose the midterms. If the US chickens out now, they will have used 20? billions and depleting all the stockpile from the pacific for what? just to mow the grass? That would suck balls.
You said it yourself: Iran is a weak country that posed no direct threat to the US. So, why attack it? They kept reconstituting their weapons program? Ok, but nothing they were doing threatened the US. The President yielded to the temptation of believing his little war would be quick and easy - just like Venezuela, just like the 12-day bombing campaign. But - no surprise to anybody paying attention - Iran immediately closed the strait. It was never worth risking this.
I agree it is bad that we have already wasted the weapons stockpile and spent tens of billions, and we've lost American lives. This, apparently, was for for little to no gain - "mowing the lawn" - which leaves a very bitter taste. But if we double down, there's a very good chance we will waste even more weapons, more money, and more lives without getting much in return - while inflicting very serious damage to the world economy and our alliances.
17,000 US soldiers aren't going to conquer a country of 95 million. It's not clear how much pressure the US can bring to bear, or how easily, and how willing Iran is to carry out its threats to damage other persian gulf oil production. There are many ways for this to end with very serious harm and a sullen, defiant Iranian government still in charge of its territory.
Why attack it when it’s weak?
Because they will be much tougher to deal with when they are not weak. After they got exposed last year, they were even more hellbent in getting nukes (which who wouldn’t?!). So if the goal is to prevent them from getting nukes, imo it’s better to deal with them when they are weak. No one is asking for a full scale invasion and conquering. Just severely degrade their military capabilities and internal repression infrastructure (so they can’t gun down their own people) and keep up the economic pressure. Maybe it’ll work out idk 🤷
If we listen to the hawks, Iran has been “two weeks away from getting a nuclear weapon” for years and years.
It’s easy to dream of smashing their capability and ending the threat. And it’s tiring to think about negotiations and monitoring. But actually starting a war carries costs and uncertainties and even after all that it may not resolve anything. A lot of people say the sanctions program and monitoring was working. I find it hard to trust Donald Trump’s dismissal more.
Well they are not wrong in the sense that they already have the stockpile, even the IAEA agrees. And Russia and China can always step up as far as the infrastructure goes. All the more reasons to say the regime’s gotta go!