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Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh's avatar

Both of these pieces included an impressive compilation of open source info, including numbers, and I agree the expectation of stalemate is the most likely outcome. One thing I’d add is the possible effects of Iranian drones and missiles, which will exacerbate Ukraine’s air defense problem. There are of course ways to deal with that issue too--electronic countermeasures, more AA guns, etc--but the constant move-countermove dynamic contributes to stalemate as an outcome. Offensive ops require a serious margin of advantage in effectiveness, and it’s hard for me to see either side obtaining it.

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Nikita Sokolsky's avatar

“ the rate of consumption in that war has made NATO members realize their inventories needed to be much higher in case of a large-scale conflict”

I’m confused about that part - who would the conflict be with? NATO vs Russia, where Russia directly attacks the EU? That’s basically WW3 and nothing will matter except nukes. Russia invading some other non-NATO country? Something else?

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