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Cinna the Poet's avatar

A well thought out piece. From listening to folks like Kofman and Alperovitch, what they tend to say is that a ceasefire is very likely to end in a resumption of the war a year or two later under conditions more favorable to Russia. Does that seem clearly wrong to you? Or is the idea that kicking the can down the road is beneficial enough to be worth doing even if it isn't a permanent solution?

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Scipion8's avatar

1) Your entire argument is based on the premise that Russia will inevitably end up winning the war, which is a highly debatable view, with which many military experts disagree. And polls also show that most Ukrainians (an overwhelming majority, in fact: over 90%) disagree with that view: they want to continue the fight not out of a moral sense of resistance or heroism, but because they are convinced they will win this war.

2) You underline the costs of a prolonged war for Ukraine, for the West, for the world, but strangely enough, not for Russia... It is strange that you describe the war as catastrophic for Ukraine's demographics but not for Russia's demographics: Russia also has a very low fertility rate and now they face massive losses of young men and massive emigration of their young elite.

3) As regards the cost of a prolonged war for the West, leaving moral considerations aside, one can easily make the argument that the West actually paid a very modest price for destroying the better half of the Russian military power (and counting...) and eliminating Europe's dependence on Russian energy, which was a key vulnerability.

4) You are over-relying on a rhetorical technique: you try to dismiss fears, in case of a Russian victory, of a Ukrainian genocide or an end to the international order, as excessive and absurd, but you fail to honestly recognize the actual likely consequences of that scenario:

- What do you really think the Ukrainian population would face in case of Russian victory? Personally, I would expect Ukraine to turn into a second Belarus, i.e. a dictatorship without sovereignty. Do you find such fate so nice for those people?

- Similarly, you seem to ignore that Putin, Medvedev & co. have been abundantly clear on the fact that they see no room for an independent Ukraine. They have said repeatedly they want its total annihilation. We all know the pattern with Putin: a successful aggression is followed by another, worse aggression. Again, no one can think it's a desirable outcome.

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