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Yair Halberstadt's avatar

Thanks for this piece!

I'll start off with aspects I think you've missed, then onto places where I agree.

Note: I live in Israel.

1. By capturing some 240 hostages Hamas forced Israel's hand. A government that didn't try it's hardest to get back these hostages would have collapsed within weeks by popular pressure.

2. The Shalit prisoner exchange is widely seen as responsible for Hamas deciding to take these hostages. A prisoner exchange on Hamas's terms would likely be terrible for Israel in encouraging more copycat attacks.

3. The war in Gaza is actually very likely to resolve the hostage situation one way or another. Either the IDF goes through the entirety of Gaza and finds the hostages (alive or dead), or it pressures Hamas into releasing the hostages on Israel's terms. The latter appears to be happening if rumours are to be believed.

4. I think Israel's been relatively clear about it's official aims. It wants security control of Gaza much like it does for the west bank. That will be bad for Gaza, and possibly Israel long term, but I think it's somewhat disingenuous to pretend like we don't know what they want at all.

5. This operation is very similar to the one in Mosul, both in terms of terrain, civilian casualties, tactics etc. That did effectively destroy ISIS as a *significant* terrorist organisation. Caveat - different levels of popular support.

6. Historically, cases where Israel has been seen as giving into violence have bred further violence. So have cases where they reacted with excessive violence. So it's in a bit of a catch 22 here.

7. The area around the Gaza strip is important for Israel's food security - it produces some 70% of Israel's locally grown vegetables. This war is likely to be successful at creating a situation where people are prepared to return, in a way that different tactics likely wouldn't be.

OTOH

I agree that nothing particularly good is likely to come from this war.

I also think that Israel should put a lot more effort *than it appears to be* into working out what comes after. This includes rebuilding Gaza, governance, economy etc. I think Israel should pay for rebuilding Gaza itself as a goodwill gesture.

It also should take a lot stronger immediate efforts to alleviate the humanitarian situation in southern Gaza.

Final thoughts:

What should the rest of the world do:

1. Putting pressure on Israel about Gaza is unlikely to have much useful effect. Let it play out, and focus on humanitarian interventions (tents, food, water, field hospitals).

2. In return put incredible pressure on Israel to reign in settler violence and stop all settlement building. The US has the power to demand this as an ultimatum and should. Condition all aid to Israel on this.

3. Other than that - mostly ignore this. There's a lot of horrible countries doing a lot of horrible things and there's not much you can do about them. That is the sad state of the world. The US wasn't able to help Syria, Sudan, Yemen, The Uighers, and the vast majority of horrible things that are happening/happened recently. When there's a solid practical intervention you can do, do it, but trying to do something without clear strategic aims tends to make things worse.

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myst_05's avatar

> What is going to happen to the people who live there this winter if they don’t have a roof over their head?

I've checked the weather stats and during the coldest week of the year it's 17C/62F during the day, 10C/50F during the night. I've done a lot of camping in similar temperatures and it's not a big deal to live in a tent during such temperatures. If anything, it's the summer that's going to be far more brutal without air conditioning. So I'd say the biggest problems will start around May rather than during January.

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