Thing is, Biden _already_ lost the far-Left and the Arab vote. These people were already pissed at him for not being Bernie or for being too (socially) liberal. They definitely can't go back now that he supposedly allowed a 'genocide'. 'You killed X thousand people and now we'll forgive you' doesn't work emotionally, and it's even in their political interest to not forgive him and try to show their power. So the only thing his current policy can do is lose the hawkish and pro-Israeli vote.

His actual interest is in pushing Israel to end this sooner, and since a ceasefire won't happen, it would have to be violently. There'll be low grade violence always, but it will go away from the headlines.

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The last paragraph really hits the nail on the head. I've been screaming it from the rooftops: the political problem for Biden isn't just antiwar discontent, but also that the war's continued salience *hurts him with hawks*.

Biden won't get any credit for enabling the war, and a large part of the pro-Israel right will be convinced that the Democrat is tying Israel's hands no matter what he actually does. And a lot of low-information voters, without forming a strong opinion on Israel and Palestine either way, just believe that the violent chaos they see on TV represents the President's weakness.

All of these dynamics get a lot worse if there are more American casualties from the regional spillover. Biden can either retaliate in a measured way, which earns him no credit with either hawks or doves and increases the general feeling of presidential fecklessness, or he can escalate, which still won't earn him credit with hawks but only deepen the problem.

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You talk like Oslo was a bad deal for Palestinians but it resulted in Palestinian control of Gaza, the Pal population in the West Bank, wide-spread recognition of their cause. Settlement territorial growth, in numbers and size, hasn't been large since Oslo in my understanding, though number of people has grown, same way Arab population between river and sea has grown. And it's not like Pals have held up their end of the bargain in completely policing terrorism.

But most fundamentally, is there anything to indicate that Pals were indeed willing to end conflict during Oslo period? Indeed there's always been Israeli skepticism, and it's grown since Oslo failure, which you note. But suggesting Pal resistance to two states and ending the conflict is completely a result of settlements is wildly inaccurate.

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It does not seem to be in US strict national self-interest to unconditionally aid the Israel Army conduct a genocide. There are 10m israelis and there is a 2bn people muslim community.

Of course, support against US is not limited to these 2bn people only, and while the west is being divided about whether the genocide is justified, most of the rest is not.

The speed at which the "unconditional support" was given by Biden and never taken away shows that his heuristics is to listen to the arms lobby in matters of foreign policy.

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I don’t really care what is best for any particular American politician. I think the best solution would be for Israel to put down the forces rising up against it with whatever force is necessary.

I live in San Diego. If Tijuana did to us what those in Palestine did to Israel (reclaiming what is rightfully Mexican), then I assure you we would eliminate all future threats in the region, up to the point of making TJ a lifeless desert.

The problem in Israel is that they are not forceful enough. I am sure they have their reasons for this, and I understand why American politicians don’t want to see Israel do what is really necessary. So it will drag on…

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"This model of foreign policy decision-making is flawed because, among other things, domestic political considerations often interfere." Up to this point you make an interesting case. But there is one obvious lead you do not pursue, the elephant in the room, so to speak. This is the economic interests of the military industrial complex. What happens to your story if you factor these in?

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