The war in Gaza is going to harm Biden, but perhaps more for the indirect effects it will have on his campaign than because of the direct effect on voters.
If it's in Biden's interest to get this war over as quickly as possible (which is probably true), the easiest way to achieve this is to stop deliberately prolonging the war. Israel has been hanging around waiting to invade Rafah for months. If they had done this there's a chance it would have ended in some calamitous massacre (I'd say 20%), and there's a chance it would have ended in humiliating defeat for Israel (40%), and a chance it would have ended well enough for Bibi to declare victory (40%), but either way the war would already be over by now.
Another issue you don't factor in is 'is it actually good for your movement to have pro-Palestine people in it?'. Now, I'm aware that lots of normie liberals are vaguely pro Palestine, but people who are strongly pro Palestine are just one long list of fuckups. Norman Finkelstein, despite his bizarre personal life and clear flat effect, is actually a very normal and mentally healthy person compared to most pro Palestine people, which is why they basically kicked him out before the latest flare up. We can talk about why this is - the obvious reason is that if you see a crowd of tens of thousands of people spitting on the naked body of a mutilated women and think 'I want to devote significant amount of my free time to making sure these people have a state' you are probably mentally ill in some way - but this is the reality. The Democratic party has struggled for over a decade with the problem of how to look less crazy than the Republican party and this is actually the perfect issue, should they choose to use it. If I were them, I would be posting checks to Jackson Hinkle and trying to make the MAGA-Palestine thing real.
How would an invasion of Rafa "finish" the war. The Israelis still have no clear political objective other than the destruction of Hamas. Meanwhile, Israel keeps withdrawing and reentering other parts of Gaza without really asserting complete control of the territory. It is difficult to see how the means of constant raids and aerial bombing can ever achieve the political objective of destroying Hamas. Israel must either change its way of war or its political objective for this war to end.
If it's in Biden's interest to get this war over as quickly as possible (which is probably true), the easiest way to achieve this is to stop deliberately prolonging the war. Israel has been hanging around waiting to invade Rafah for months. If they had done this there's a chance it would have ended in some calamitous massacre (I'd say 20%), and there's a chance it would have ended in humiliating defeat for Israel (40%), and a chance it would have ended well enough for Bibi to declare victory (40%), but either way the war would already be over by now.
Another issue you don't factor in is 'is it actually good for your movement to have pro-Palestine people in it?'. Now, I'm aware that lots of normie liberals are vaguely pro Palestine, but people who are strongly pro Palestine are just one long list of fuckups. Norman Finkelstein, despite his bizarre personal life and clear flat effect, is actually a very normal and mentally healthy person compared to most pro Palestine people, which is why they basically kicked him out before the latest flare up. We can talk about why this is - the obvious reason is that if you see a crowd of tens of thousands of people spitting on the naked body of a mutilated women and think 'I want to devote significant amount of my free time to making sure these people have a state' you are probably mentally ill in some way - but this is the reality. The Democratic party has struggled for over a decade with the problem of how to look less crazy than the Republican party and this is actually the perfect issue, should they choose to use it. If I were them, I would be posting checks to Jackson Hinkle and trying to make the MAGA-Palestine thing real.
How would an invasion of Rafa "finish" the war. The Israelis still have no clear political objective other than the destruction of Hamas. Meanwhile, Israel keeps withdrawing and reentering other parts of Gaza without really asserting complete control of the territory. It is difficult to see how the means of constant raids and aerial bombing can ever achieve the political objective of destroying Hamas. Israel must either change its way of war or its political objective for this war to end.
I said. Either it gives the government enough cover to call it a day, or it's enough of a failure that Israel gives up.