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Trent McBride's avatar

This is a good analysis, but I guess I'm left wondering whether the NCVS is reliable, more than anything. Murder, of course, is only a small % of violent crime (<1), but there blacks are victimized at a much higher rate than their share of the population (about 4x). Is it reasonable that they are the victims of non-fatal violence at a lower rate than their population and a much lower rate than their murder? This seems to strain credulity.

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Jason Manning's avatar

Interviews with criminals may be relevant. In Wright and Decker’s Armed Robbers in Action, they interview a few dozen (mostly black) active robbers in St. Louis (snowball sampled through a reformed ex-robber). Robbers consider several factors when deciding who to rob, and there is some disagreement among them on who is the best target. But there was general agreement that whites were safer targets — less likely to fight back. Given the demographics of local neighborhoods race probably is a decent indicator of whether someone has experience with violence or follows the code of the streets with its ethic of retaliation and toughness.

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