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Sebastien's avatar

Interesting. US and Europe did not make any effort post Maidan to help Russia uphold its vital interests in Ukraine. It was all about prying Ukraine from Russia. Odessa and Kiev are very important to Ukrainians and to Russians. The two histories are very much linked and reading John Darwin made me want to visit Odessa https://polsci.substack.com/p/after-tamerlane

Ukrainians are more freedom loving than Russians, and I hoped something like Ireland for them as a bridge between EU and Uk, they could be a bridge between EU and Russia. But there was reduction of corruption since 2014, just afew millions paid to Hunter Biden, but EU and US tax payers are paying dearly for these now.

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Lucas B.'s avatar

The US and Europe specifically did attempt to accommodate Russia with the Minsk accords and the refusal to send weapons to Ukraine. Merkel was so willing to accommodate that she continued plans for Nordstream 2. To be clear, we let Russia get away with annexing a part of its neighbour and directly using its military to fight a war in Donetsk. To say there was no effort is simply wrong. A look at the history of Putin's actions is more useful to understand the current conflict than any stories about the value of Odessa to Russians, he advances until he meets force and he has contempt for those too weak to use it.

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Sebastien's avatar

The deterioration of Paris-Berlin-Moscow relation from bucharest summit in 2008 to 2022 is salient.

About the post-2014, Merkel and Hollande declared they were just buying time for NATO to rearm Ukraine. Also, it seems that Victoria Nuland tried to harm Russia's strategic interests in Ukraine, assuming this would serve US interests.

EU Policy was stuck with 27 countries, there was no capacity for a dialogue for a strategic solution. I see this at best as an opportunistic capture by US weapons dealers special interest comingled with incitement to russophobic pathologies.

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Random Musings and History's avatar

What's interesting is that John Mearsheimer actually advocated in favor of a Ukrainian nuclear deterrent back in 1993:

https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Mearsheimer-Case-for-Ukrainian-Nuclear-Deterrent.pdf

Maybe this could be a viable Ukrainian alternative to NATO membership? If necessary, being done secretly?

If anything, even hundreds of dirty bombs sent on Ukrainian drones could *perhaps* be enough for this?

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mdv59's avatar

Thanks for the sober, non hyperbolic, analysis. Reality aside, what’s your best guess as to what is really motivating Putin’s efforts?

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